Aon predicts insured losses to exceed $US100 billion milestone again

24 October 2022

Aon’s latest catastrophe report predicts that worldwide insured losses will surpass $US100 billion ($159.70 billion) for the third year in a row.

The third quarter report’s preliminary outlook places total economic loss nine months into the year at a minimum of $US227 billion ($363.65 billion), with public and private insurers covering about $US99 billion ($158.60 billion).

The US accounts for the highest share of economic losses, with a total of $US114 billion ($182.63 billion), followed by Asia Pacific (APAC) and Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA).

The report says economic losses are projected to be in line with 21st-century averages but expects insured losses to exceed norms from 2000 and 2012.

It says the comparisons will depend on the financial outlook from Hurricane Ian, which it anticipates to be the costliest weather event of the year, and potentially one of the most expensive insured loss events on record.

“It is anticipated that there will be robust loss development across many of the reported natural catastrophes, especially with the realisation of costs associated with recent tropical cyclone development worldwide,” Aon’s Impact Forecasting Team Catastrophe Insight head Michal Lorinc said.

The report says the early stages of the third quarter were defined by extreme heatwaves and drought in China and Europe but expects wet weather events to be the primary concern moving forward.

“Recurring La Nina conditions and the remainder of tropical cyclone seasons can potentially trigger impactful events through the rest of the year, with additional costs arising from inflationary pressure,” Mr Lorinc said.