Seventh-straight active hurricane season expected

30 May 2022

The Atlantic hurricane season, which starts on Wednesday, is likely to feature above-average activity for a seventh consecutive year, partly due to the ongoing La Nina, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says.

NOAA Climate Prediction Centre forecasters see a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance that it will be below-normal.

The number of hurricanes could range from 6-10, while 3-6 could reach major hurricane strength. In total there could be 14-21 named storms. The outlook doesn’t include the potential for landfall.

“As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms, such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area 10 years ago, remind us that the impact of one storm can be felt for years,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said.

“Since Sandy, NOAA’s forecasting accuracy has continued to improve, allowing us to better predict the impacts of major hurricanes to lives and livelihoods.”

Drivers this year include the ongoing La Nina, which NOAA says is likely to persist through the hurricane season, as well as Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea influences, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an ongoing west African monsoon.

Aon points out that above or below-average season forecasts are often a poor predictor of hurricane season economic or insured losses.

“Landfall location and coastal/inland storm behaviour are the predominant loss correlation drivers,” it says.

The hurricane season extends from June 1 to November 30.