Considering going without insurance this year. Tell me what I’m not seeing.

Due to the cost, my husband & I (late 20s M & F) are considering not signing up for any marketplace insurance this year. Our state does NOT require us to have insurance, and neither of us have it through our jobs.

Here’s my thought process:

My husband’s job has a good amount of injury risk. In the past, that’s been my only reason for wanting to have insurance.

However, the best marketplace plan available for us is around $600 a month, with a $17.5K deductible. So we pay a minimum of $7,200 every year in “medical expenses,” if you will.

There’s 4 situations to look at here—

We DO get insurance, and DO end up needing it for costly emergency care.

We DO get insurance, and do NOT end up needing it for costly emergency care.

We do NOT get insurance, but DO end up needing costly emergency care.

We do NOT get insurance, and do NOT end up needing costly emergency care.

In Situation 1, we’d be paying the $17.5K deductible, plus any other costs insurance doesn’t cover (which I’ve heard horror stories about). Then, when a new year rolls around, we would be back to paying $600 a month again.

In Situation 2, we’d be paying $600 a month, plus co-pay for any other minor office visits/scripts/etc.

In Situation 3 (the least desirable situation), we’d be paying the entire amount of ALL serious emergency care. In which case (say it’s a $100k total), I’d negotiate to get on an interest-free payment plan, and pay $600 a month toward the bill—the same amount we WOULD have been paying for insurance. The bill would be paid off in 14 years.

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In Situation 4 (the most desirable situation), we’d just be paying whatever the out of pocket cost is for any minor office visits/scripts/etc.

Here’s the rub: If we have insurance, REGARDLESS of if we had a serious injury or not, $600 a month WILL be spent. If we don’t have insurance, $600 a month MIGHT be spent.

Right now, to me, having insurance is seeming more and more silly.

What are the gaps in my logic? What am I not seeing?

Thanks in advance for taking the time to read & reply. I know this is a lot of text lol.

submitted by /u/raykayjae