Gas Prices Are Beginning to Trend Lower

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Gas prices could soon fall to an average of $4 per gallon according to one energy coordinator in the Biden Administration.The national average price of gas has fallen for 34 consecutive days. Some 25,000 gas stations are at $3.99 or less, according to GasBuddy.

Neils Bohr was a smart guy—he won the Nobel prize in physics. But the smartest thing he ever said may have been this: “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!” That wisdom certainly applies to gas prices. Last week we wrote a story explaining that despite downward trends, we likely won’t see relief from high gas prices until 2023. Turns out, the low prices we are all hoping for may be closer than we originally thought. (That previous article is still relevant though, as it contains in-depth explanations of crude oil, which help to make an overly complicated issue a bit more digestible.)

Since gas rose to a record-setting $5.02 on June 14, it has been on a downward trend for the past month and currently sits at $4.52 per gallon. Compared to $5.02, paying $4.52 may feel like a boon from some benevolent deity, although, according to AAA, $4.52 is nearly 43 percent more than the national average from one year ago, which was $3.16.

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In an interview on CBS’s “Face The Nation” show on Sunday, Amos Hochstein, the special presidential coordinator for international energy affairs, said that he expects gas prices to continue trending closer to $4 per gallon. Hochstein explained that as production in the U.S. ramps up by another million barrels per day near the end of the year, the million barrels provided by the strategic reserve daily will phase out. Hochstein also pointed out that a growing number of gas stations are already below $4 per gallon.

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“We’ve seen the national average price of gasoline decline for a fifth straight week, with the pace of recent declines accelerating to some of the most significant we’ve seen in years,” said Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis in a recent blog. “This trend is likely to reach a sixth straight week, with prices likely to fall again this week. Barring major hurricanes, outages, or unexpected disruptions, I forecast the national average to fall to $3.99/gal by mid-August.” Let’s hope he’s right. We know how tricky this prediction business can be.

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