Why Ontario should be worried about worsening weather

2022 saw another year of natcats worth over $3 billion in insured damages (the third highest total natcat loss in Canadian history). 

These figures don’t just point to more insured damages losses for the industry, but rather are a signal that weather events are worsening as our climate warms, one expert suggested. 

Events like the late December 2022 storm which swept through eastern Canada, including Ontario and parts of the U.S, are becoming more frequent, Chris St Clair, former weather presenter and journalist at the Weather Network told Canadian Underwriter. 

Climate change is causing the atmosphere across the globe, including Ontario, to warm at a rapid rate. 

But a warmer overall atmosphere doesn’t mean Ontario won’t get below-freezing weather, Chris St Clair, former weather presenter and journalist at the Weather Network told Canadian Underwriter. 

“Say our temperature, our winter average in Toronto, goes up four degrees in the next 25 years. It’s still below freezing. It’s just not minus ten degrees—it’s -6. So, it’s still cold enough that we’re going to get snow.” 

#ShowYourStripes campaign which depicts Temperature Change in Ontario between 1901 to 2021

This is troublesome as a warmer atmosphere is capable of holding more moisture. And more moisture means increasingly frequent and severe storms, St Clair explains. 

Prudent, as Ontario is often susceptible to lake effect snow (I.e. snow produced when cold air passes over warm bodies of water, like the great lakes). 

“If storms are stronger, we’re going to get more lake effect snow,” he says, “and if the atmosphere can hold more moisture, we’ll actually get storms that contain more snow.” 

The late December “bomb cyclone” in eastern Canada which had an estimated $180 million in insured damages (according to Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ) figures) is just one example of worsening weather events in action.  

Of the eight highest severe weather events with insured damage in 2022, five of them occurred at least partially in Ontario.  

“Those types of ice events with snow and wind and the Great Lakes are becoming more frequent for the same reasons,” he said. “Those are the kinds of weather events that we’ll see more of in this part of Canada.” 

The bomb cyclone caused ice to build up on homes along the shores of the lakes, as seen in photos circulated across social media. 

“That ice buildup wasn’t from freezing rain—that was just from the wind lifting moisture off of Lake Erie and throwing it against the buildings,” said St Clair, who will be presenting at CatIQ Connect on February 7 in Toronto. 

“[But] building codes aren’t designed with that in mind. So the structural damage that can happen to all of those buildings carrying that load of ice, the buildings aren’t designed for that kind of loading for weight. 

“Those are things that we need to start thinking about in this part of the country: ‘how do we mitigate the problem in the future?’ because the problem won’t go away.” 

Houses along the shores of Lake Erie, near Fort Erie, Ont., remain covered in ice Tuesday, December 27, 2022, following a winter storm that swept through much of Ontario. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nick Iwanyshyn