Ireland to retain Six Nations Crown according to QBE Predictor

Ireland to retain Six Nations Crown according to QBE Predictor

Authored by QBE Head of Media Relations and Content Sandra Villanueva

According to forecasts by QBE Business Insurance, Ireland are set to win away in France on Friday night en route to winning the Six Nations again and record back-to-back Grand Slam championships.

In the pick of the first weekend’s Six Nations fixtures the reigning Champions travel to Marseille for a showdown of epic proportions and a repeat of the match which ultimately decided the 2023 championship. The QBE Predictor is forecasting a narrow 25-26 win in a match which really could go either way; France are given a 46% of winning, Ireland a 51% chance and there is a 3% chance of a draw.

Both sides will be looking to bounce back from World Cup disappointment, but will be doing so under different stewardship. Jonny Sexton, Ireland’s talisman for over a decade, retired from rugby after the world cup, while Antoine Dupont, arguably the best scrum half in world rugby, won’t be playing. Ireland will certainly look a different side and the pressure will be on new captain Peter O’Mahony to carry his team over the line. The QBE Predictor suggests Ireland will handle the changes the better of the two sides and come away victorious in what will be their first of a clean sweep of victories. The Predictor has Ireland to win all five of their matches and become the first team since France in 1997/98 to win consecutive Grand Slams.

In the other fixtures on the opening weekend the QBE Predictor gives England a 95% chance of victory as they travel to Rome to play Italy. The Predictor has England winning 11-39 under new captain Jamie George. In the last match of the weekend Wales host Scotland at the Principality Stadium, Wales are given a 28% chance of victory compared to 69% for the travelling Scots, which would complete a clean sweep of victories for the away sides.

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David Jones, Director of Underwriting at QBE, said:
“The Predictor backs Ireland, England and Scotland to win on the opening weekend of the 2024 Six Nations tournament despite all playing away from home, underlining the point that we must be prepared for surprise outcomes. The QBE Predictor also anticipates a record Grand Slam for Ireland but this is dependent on a close win against France followed by four further victories. Just as we advise businesses to prepare for unexpected events, the players and coaches should be preparing for unlikely occurrences and how to take advantage too.”

Round One score predictions:

Score Prediction

Outcome Probability

Home

Away

Home win

Away win

Draw

France

25

26

Ireland

46%

51%

3%

Italy

11

39

England

4%

95%

1%

Wales

15

23

Scotland

28%

69%

3%

Tournament Predictions:

Winner

QBE Predictor

Ireland

46%

France

33%

Scotland

10%

England

6%

Wales

5%

Italy

0%

Ireland match Predictions:

Score Prediction

Home

Away

France

25

26

Ireland

Ireland

46

13

Italy

Ireland

25

16

Wales

England

18

27

Ireland

Ireland

27

15

Scotland

The QBE Predictor simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team. The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, and the international experience of each team captain.